Bitcoin price could rise sharply on further adoption, says PlanB

Last Updated: 2 March 2023

If you ask Dutch analyst PlanB, the outlook is almost always bullish for the bitcoin price. Again, he shared on Twitter an “analysis” in which he speculates on a future price explosion for bitcoin. He bases that analysis on bitcoin’s adoption rate and the price performance that has followed it in the past.

Price explosion looming?

In his post, PlanB writes about the jump in the bitcoin price from practically zero to $20,000 due to a 1 per cent adoption rate. That means PlanB has the idea that currently ‘only’ 1 per cent of the world’s population is on bitcoin.

By the way, adoption always remains a vague concept because you can colour it in a lot of different ways. Has someone who owns $50 worth of bitcoin adopted the digital currency? Personally, I would say not. In that sense, it is difficult to express adoption in percentages.

Anyway, according to PlanB, there is currently 1 per cent adoption and that brought the price to $20,000. In his post, he then speculates about the price explosion bitcoin will experience if adoption rises from 1 to 50 per cent.

We cannot answer this either, but chances are that the share price will be many times higher if bitcoin does indeed manage to reach a 50 per cent adoption rate. The big question is mainly whether bitcoin has what it takes to pull that off in the long run.

The adoption

Earlier this week, PlanB also published about bitcoin’s adoption rate. The analyst did so, of course, with a chart constructed entirely in his own style. In the commentary accompanying the chart, PlanB says he is especially looking forward to the vertical period of the so-called S-curve, which should take place in the next halving period from 2024 to 2028.

Incidentally, the timing of the vertical part of the S-curve is an estimate by PlanB, based on fairly simple calculations with past data. So it remains to be seen whether we will indeed see that vertical adoption of bitcoin during that period.

  • Ivan Brightly

    Ivan Brightly is a leading cryptocurrency analyst and author with over 5 years of experience in the blockchain and digital asset space. He previously served as a senior analyst at a major cryptocurrency hedge fund where he led quantitative research and trading strategy development.

    Ivan holds a Master's degree in Finance from the London School of Economics and a Bachelor's in Computer Science from Stanford University. He is frequently invited to speak at fintech and blockchain conferences worldwide on topics spanning cryptocurrency trading, blockchain technology, and the future of digital assets.

    Ivan's commentary has been featured in several major finance and technology publications including Forbes, Bloomberg, and CoinDesk. He is considered one of the most insightful voices analyzing new developments in the cryptocurrency and blockchain industry.

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