PlanB: “The world is not ready for the next bitcoin halving”

Last Updated: 15 February 2023

The next halving of bitcoin is cautiously approaching. For now, this historically significant event is scheduled for 18 March 2024, although of course that remains dependent on how quickly miners manage to produce new blocks. At that point, the block reward for miners will halve from 6.25 to 3.125 bitcoin per block.

The world is not ready

Dutch analyst PlanB emerged as “Mister Halving” after publishing his Stock-to-Flow model in 2019, as practically his entire model revolves around halving. Not surprisingly, the analyst is hugely looking forward to the next halving and has great expectations for it.

“The halving is not so much about dwindling supply and reward for miners, but more about the increase in scarcity of bitcoin in the eyes of investors. The 2024 halving will upgrade scarcity to a Stock-to-Flow ratio of 110…. the world is not ready for an S2F110 asset,” said an optimistic PlanB.

With this, the analyst indicates that he expects another bull market around the halfway point, otherwise he would have chosen different wording. In the end, we will all have to see. Of course, bitcoin’s past performance after halvings is anything but a guarantee for the future.

Halving of 2024 not priced in

In honour of his post discussed earlier, PlanB also organised a poll on the 2024 bitcoin halving. According to a vast majority of more than 24,800 voters, the upcoming halving is not yet priced in. 58.8 per cent of voters indicated that they expect the price to rise after the halving.

Just under 11 per cent say the halving is already factored into the price and 30.1 per cent say they don’t know and want to see the results. Basically, this makes 84 per cent of voters who do have an opinion say that the price will rise. On that basis, PlanB concludes, “The 2024 halving is not priced in and will pump the share price.”

It is nice to see that PlanB has remained so optimistic, despite its stock-to-flow model having lost its luster a bit. On the other hand, the way he manifests himself also has something desperate and simplistic, as he plays off the same story every time and is extremely bullish.

  • Gabriele Spapperi

    Gabriele Spapperi is a veteran cryptocurrency investor and blockchain technology specialist. He became fascinated with Bitcoin and distributed ledgers while studying computer science at MIT in 2011.

    Since 2013, Gabriele has actively traded major cryptocurrencies and identified early-stage projects to invest in. He contributes articles to leading fintech publications sharing his insights on blockchain technology, crypto markets, and trading strategies.

    With over a decade of experience in the crypto space, Gabriele provides reliable insights and analysis on the latest developments in digital assets and blockchain platforms. When he's not analyzing crypto markets, Gabriele enjoys travel, golf, and fine wine. He currently resides in Austin, Texas.

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